Archive
2025-11-17Intent-Based Aggregators for Prediction Markets
2025-11-16Novel Interface Designs for Prediction Markets
2025-11-15The Future of Play Money Prediction Markets
2025-11-14Prediction Market Prices != Probabilities
2025-11-13Why did it take so long for prediction markets to find product-market fit?
2025-11-12The Case For Alternative Ordering Mechanisms in Prediction Markets
2025-11-11Prediction markets are leaking $78M annually
2025-11-10Blame as a Service
2025-11-09Markers of High Agency
2025-11-08The Structure, Incentives, and Negative Externalities of “You Can Just Do Things”
2025-11-07Derivative Work Level Notes
2025-11-06Why do people who get paid the most do the least?
2025-11-05Financial Markets 2
2025-11-04Financial Markets
2025-11-03Incentive-Compatibility is Overrated
2025-11-02Never Reason from a Price Change, Culture Edition
2025-11-01Architecting Reality
2025-10-13Title Arbitrage as Status Engineering
2025-09-23Lessons From Poker
2025-09-22Steelmanning The Case For Consultants, Affirmative Action, and Alcohol
2025-09-17Omniscient Entities
2025-09-11Why hasn’t there been a new major sports league?
2025-09-09How to scale a venture fund, lessons from FTX Ventures
2025-08-27Notes on Shadowing a Hospitalist
2025-08-26Don’t Build an Audience
2025-08-21Career Advice That Doesn’t Suck
2025-08-11Hyper-Optimized Children
2025-03-24No One is Really Working
2025-03-03Why You Should Be More Cynical
2025-02-12Your Life is More Over Than You Think